WTA 1000 – Dubai – Day 3 betting analysis
(2) Karolina Pliskova vs. Anastasija Sevastova
Sevastova holds a 2-1 head-to-head record over Pliskova and looms as a tricky first-up opponent for the second seed in Dubai. Pliskova’s form over the last few months and even going back over the last year has been not been convincing, consistently losing in matches where she is favoured to win. This could be another one of those matches. Sevastova’s versatile game is problematic for Pliskova, that has proven to be the case in the past. Sevastova won their most recent meeting in straight sets, that was back in 2017 on clay in Madrid, a while ago but it highlights the problems Pliskova can have here. Sevastova’s recent from has been bad, but she has recently shown some signs that she could be turning things around, it is the Latvian who heads into this match with nothing much to lose, which could also work in her favour.
Pick: Anastasija Sevastova H2H – 3U @ $3.75 (bet365)
(6) Belinda Bencic vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Bencic wins in this match-up more often than not, I believe… she is a class above Kudermetova and always has been. Granted, the H2H advantage is actually in favour of Kudermetova, but I think that is misleading. Bencic is more solid and usually does well in these matchups against big, flat hitters. Bencic absorbs and redirects pace better than just about anyone on tour, that comes in handy in this match-up against Kudermetova who strikes the ball very hard and flat. Bencic made a slow start to the year but showed signs of a form reversal with a run to the final in Adelaide. Bencic is a former champion in Dubai, winning the tournament in 2019, a surface that suits her game well. Surprised to see Kudermetova starting as the favourite here.
Pick: Belinda Bencic H2H – 6U @ $2.1 (bet365)
(12) Marketa Vondrousova vs. Cori Gauff
Gauff is consistently overrated by bookmakers, it has been that way for a while. The value almost always with her opponent, good value with Vondrousova here who should be able to get the job done. Vondrousova is a smart player and is starting to find some good form, she has the solid, versatile game to pick on the weaknesses of Gauff. Vondrousova has a great return of serve, previously ranked at the very top of the tour, while the Gauff serve is very vulnerable, this could be a key factor in this match-up with Vondrousova continually putting pressure on the Gauff serve.
Pick: Marketa Vondrousova H2H – 6U @ $1.8 (bet365)
(3) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Alize Cornet
Sabalenka has lost 2 matches in a row, a position she isn’t used to these days. Sabalenka therefore comes into this match under a bit of pressure, a tough opponent awaits her. Cornet is an awkward opponent for Sabalenka, drop shots, slice, different spins and paces will be used by Cornet to try and draw errors from Sabalenka. Cornet has a history of pulling off surprises in these types of matches and seemingly has a decent chance here with Sabalenka playing her first match of the tournament after receiving a bye in the opening round. Worth a shot at these odds.
Pick: Alize Cornet H2H – 3U @ $5 (bet365)
^ based on a 10-unit betting system.