??? Roland Garros – R1 Betting Tips & Analysis
Daria Gavrilova to defeat Dayana Yastremska
0.5 unit @ $4.7 (Pinnacle)
Daria Gavrilova +5.5 game handicap
1 unit @ $1.757 (Pinnacle)
Gavrilova returns to the big stage and presents as value against an erratic Dayana Yastremska at long odds. Gavrilova made her return to the tour last week at an ITF event in France where she made it through the qualifying draw to the quarter-finals, her first event since the 2019 US Open due to injury. In her prime Gavrilova was a great clay court player, twice reaching the semi-finals in Rome and claimed some notable wins on the red dirt. Yastremska is obviously the deserved favourite given her sharp rise over the last few years, but she is still prone to the odd poor performance and is worth a fade. Yastremska was beaten by Madison Brengle at the US Open a few weeks ago, a similar situation to this one. Gavrilova defends well, plays with variety, the type of opponent that can draw errors from Yastremska, just as Brengle did. Gavrilova won the only previous match between the pair at Indian Wells last year.
Johanna Konta to defeat Cori Gauff
3 units @ $1.598 (Pinnacle)
Gauff is overhyped, Konta is a consistently strong performer at majors. Konta has had a few bad losses here and there, including an unfortunate loss at the US Open a few weeks ago to Sorana Cirstea, but has generally maintained a high level over the last 12 months. Konta made it all the way to the semi-finals at Roland Garros last year and won Rome, proving that she is very capable on the red dirt. Konta has reached 6 quarter-finals at majors since 2016, highlighting her ability to rise to the occasion at the biggest events. Gauff is a junior Roland Garros champion but has only won 1 main draw tour level match on clay. Gauff is promising but isn’t there yet. Konta has better control of her power behind all strokes and should be too experienced and too solid for Gauff.
Caroline Garcia to defeat Anett Kontaveit
0.5 units @ $3.75 (bet365)
Caroline Garcia +1.5 set handicap
1 unit @ $1.9 (bet365)
Caroline Garcia loomed as one of the most dangerous unseeded players in the draw. The Frenchwoman has landed against the 17th seeded Kontaveit, the second consecutive tournament they will meet in the first round. Kontaveit defeated Garcia 6-3 7-6 in Rome, a close match where Garcia had her chances, especially in the second set. There is good value on Garcia’s side as such a heavy underdog. Garcia is always capable of causing an upset, we saw that at the US Open earlier this month when she eliminated the top seeded Karolina Pliskova at the second round stage. Garcia is a former quarter-finalist at Roland Garros, her home major, a tournament she enjoys playing at. Garcia has the game to match Kontaveit, if she plays her best, she is more than capable.
Anna Bogdan to defeat Timea Babos
3 units @ $1.374 (Pinnacle)
All signs point to a Bogdan victory here. Bogdan is far more comfortable on clay than Babos and has been playing better tennis this year. Bogdan has amassed a heap of victories on clay over the last few years, granted most of those wins were not at the tour level, but Babos isn’t playing at a high level. Babos is in bad form and has a bad record on clay. Babos holds a 5/10 win/loss record in 2020 and has a losing record at tour level matches on clay in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Babos has only ever won 1 main draw at Roland Garros, losing at the opening round stage on 5 occasions, including her last 3 visits to Paris. The defensive skills and consistency from the back of the court from Bogdan should be very problematic for Babos. Something very strange would have to occur for Babos to win this one.
Angelique Kerber to defeat Kaja Juvan
3 units @ $1.892 (Pinnacle)
I was very surprised to see Kerber at such high odds against Juvan. Kerber would typically be a strong favourite against a player of Juvan’s calibre. Granted, clay is Kerber’s worst surface, that’s no secret, but she is a 3-time major champion for a reason, she raises her level for the big occasions. Kerber is no scrub on clay, the German has twice reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros, most recently in 2018 and reached the fourth round on a further two occasions. Juvan is a player on the rise, a 19-year-old with a heap of clay court victories at the ITF level over the last few years. Juvan is inexperienced on big stages, Juvan hasn’t had many notable victories on the main tour and has only won 1 main draw match at a Grand Slam, none at Roland Garros. Juvan is capable but Kerber is never easy to beat, especially at a Grand Slam, the German as a very slender favourite presents as great value.
Laura Siegemund to defeat Kristina Mladenovic
3 units @ $1.769 (Pinnacle)
Expect Siegemund to get the job done against Mladenovic. Siegemund is match tough on clay, the German was one of the most active players during the tour shutdown where she won 12 consecutive matches on clay during the German Pro Series exhibition event. Mladenovic is coming off the most brutal loss of her career, leading 6-1 5-1 40-0 Mladenovic fell to pieces and lost to Varvara Gracheva at the second round stage of the US Open. Mladenovic is surely low on confidence heading into this match and Siegemund has the game required to take full advantage. Mladenovic has the added pressure of playing at her home major, a pressure she usually hasn’t done well with. Siegemund is clay court specialist, she has the consistent, versatile game to make life very difficult for Mladenovic in this situation.
Madison Brengle to defeat Jelena Ostapenko
0.5 units @ $3.75 (bet365)
Madison Brengle +1.5 set handicap
1 unit @ $1.9 (bet365)
Ostapenko shocked the tennis world when she won Roland Garros in 2017, outside of that result Ostapenko has never won a main draw match at Roland Garros. Ostapenko exited Strasbourg in an unceremonious fashion last week with a loss to Nao Hibino, Ostapenko looked as inconsistent as ever and seemed to have an injury concern. Brengle is a tough opponent, she will chase down ball after ball, a match-up with potential to really frustrate Ostapenko if the Latvian is off her game, which is a reasonable possibility. Brengle was victorious in a similar match-up at the US Open a few weeks ago where she upset Dayana Yastremska on route to the fourth round. Clay isn’t Brengle’s best surface, but it’s worth fading Ostapenko under these circumstances.
extra plays: WTA R1:
Sara Errani to defeat Monica Puig
1.5 units @ $1.689 (Pinnacle)
Monica Niculescu to defeat Danielle Collins
1.5 units @ $2.15 (Pinnacle)
Barbara Haas to defeat Su-Wei Hsieh
1.5 units @ $1.826 (Pinnacle)
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** odds true as of the time of writing (26/9/2020)