WTA 1000 – Dubai – Day 4 betting analysis
(6) Belinda Bencic vs. Anastasia Potapova
Bencic is being underrated by the bookmakers once again. I would rate Bencic a comfortable favourite in this match-up. Bencic made a bad start to the season, probably why she is being underrated, but Bencic has started to turn things around, a run to the final in Adelaide a few weeks ago has kick-started a form reversal. Bencic claimed a hard-fought 3 set win over Veronika Kudermetova in her opening match of the tournament, a very similar opponent to Potapova, in terms of playing style. Potapova is a streaky player, she is capable but probably only wins in a match-up like this 2 out of 10 times at this stage of her young career. Bencic likes these matchups, she absorbs and redirects pace extremely well, she had the perfect practise for this match-up yesterday against Kudermetova. Bencic easily defeated Potapova in their only previous meeting, a 6/2 6/1 win in Toronto in 2019. Bencic is a former champion in Dubai, having won the event two years ago, a classy player, starting to gain momentum, willing to back her strongly in these circumstances.
Pick – Belinda Bencic – 10 units @ $1.8 (bet365)
Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Kuznetsova hasn’t been making much noise lately but that is beginning to change, a pair of notable wins for the Russian sees her enter this match with momentum on her side. Kuznetsova came from 3-5 down in the deciding set to beat Wang Qiang in the opening round before upsetting the top seeded Elina Svitolina from a set down. In this type of form Kuznetsova is very much capable of defeating Krejcikova.
Pick: Svetlana Kuznetsova – 2 units @ $2.37 (bet365)
(2) Karolina Pliskova vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula is in great form, no doubt, but all good things must come to an end. Pliskova has consistently been in the top 10 for reason, she is usually successful against these types of players, that wasn’t the case when the pair met last week in Doha, Pegula won easily, hence why the American heads into this match as the favourite. However, things are unlikely to play out the same way here. Pliskova is a former champion in Dubai and usually plays well at this event, she will be determined to avoid back-to-back defeats to Pegula and is good enough to adjust and get it done here, worth a shot at these odds.
Pick: Karolina Pliskova – 2 units @ $2.3 (bet365)
(3) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (15) Anett Kontaveit
Sabalenka made an unconvincing start to the tournament in her win over Alize Cornet, her level has seemingly dropped over the last few weeks where she lost a couple of matches in a row in disappointing fashion. Kontaveit is quietly building a solid run of form, highlighted by a big win over an in-form Jennifer Brady in Doha last week. Kontaveit has claimed a pair of comfortable straight set wins this week and is very much capable of beating Sabalenka if she is slightly off her game, which seems to be a likely enough scenario.